CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2023-02-08T17:06:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2023-02-08T17:06ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/23674/-1
CME Note: Very faint full halo CME seen best in SOHO C3 running difference imagery from 2023-02-08T17:00Z to 19:00Z and as northern and southern lobes in C3 white light imagery and NW/SW lobes in STEREO A COR2A imagery. May possibly be associated with an M1.6-class solar flare and subsequent eruption from AR3213 with dimming seen in SDO 193 and GOES-16 284 starting around 16:09Z. This analysis is fairly speculative.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-02-11T19:08Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:
https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/23676/1 Model Inputs: 2023-02-08T17:06:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=1.0, Lat.=-4.0, Speed=443.0, HalfAngle=45.0, Time21.5=2023-02-08T22:20Z Model Output: Earth Impact: Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2023-02-11T19:08Z (+- 7 hours) Duration of disturbance (hr) =27.6 (+- 8 hours) Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.5 (kp)90=3 (kp)180=5 Other Location(s) Impact: Solar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-02-11T12:40Z STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-02-11T23:27Z Lucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-02-14T06:00Z Mars with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-02-14T00:00Z Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230208_222000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230208_222000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230208_222000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230208_222000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230208_222000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230208_222000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230208_222000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230208_222000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230208_222000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230208_222000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230208_222000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230208_222000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230208_222000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230208_222000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230208_222000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230208_222000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gifLead Time: 49.33 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) on 2023-02-09T17:48Z
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